South-East Europe is moving into a period where emissions, carbon pricing, and green electricity certification are no longer policy experiments. They have become structural realities shaping who can c
Exporting to the EU in the CBAM era: Green energy certificates and the new trade reality
Green energy certificates and CBAM now sit at the heart of Europe’s industrial trade reality. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism was created not as a tariff instrument, but as a structural equalis
Infrastructure is destiny: How grids, pipelines and bottlenecks create price signals
Energy markets are often analysed as abstractions: prices, curves, spreads, marginal costs. Infrastructure appears in these models as a constraint, a background condition that occasionally matters dur
South-East Europe as Europe’s stress test: What the region reveals about the energy transition
South-East Europe does not sit on the periphery of Europe’s energy system. It sits at its edge in a different sense: the edge where constraints bind first, where volatility appears earliest, and where
Trading energy in a system under stress: Portfolios, hedging, and survival in a multi-fuel market
Energy trading was once about exploiting inefficiencies. Price differences across regions, fuels, or time horizons were treated as opportunities for arbitrage. Volatility was episodic, correlations we
Flexibility as the new currency: Why speed, storage, and response matter more than capacity
For decades, energy economics was built around capacity. Installed megawatts, pipeline diameters, storage volumes, and reserve margins were treated as the primary indicators of system strength. If cap
The invisible hand of oil: Logistics, refineries, and the hidden drivers of power and gas prices
For much of the past two decades, oil was treated as a declining force in Europe’s electricity story. As power generation moved away from fuel oil and toward gas, nuclear, and renewables, oil was conc
One energy system, three fuels: Why Europe no longer has separate power, gas, and oil markets
For most of the modern history of European energy policy, electricity, natural gas, and oil were treated as adjacent but fundamentally separate domains. They were regulated through different framework
From power flows to industrial costs: How EU electricity volatility reshapes competitiveness in southeast Europe
For decades, electricity was treated by industry as a predictable input. Prices fluctuated within narrow bands, supply security was largely taken for granted, and energy strategy focused on efficiency
Flexibility without reward: Why southeast Europe balances Europe’s power system but captures none of the value
In the emerging architecture of Europe’s electricity system, flexibility has become the most valuable attribute a power asset can possess. The ability to ramp output quickly, absorb surplus generation